The biggest question in football right now isn’t about club rivalries or transfer sagas—it’s about who will lift the FIFA World Cup trophy on July 19, 2026, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
With 48 teams competing across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, this will be the largest and most unpredictable World Cup in history. The favourites are loaded with talent. The underdogs smell blood. And somewhere between the chaos of 104 matches, a champion will emerge.
We’ve analysed the betting odds, studied the groups, and watched the qualifying campaigns unfold. Now it’s time to answer the question everyone’s asking: who will win the 2026 World Cup?
Spain (5.00) is our pick to win the 2026 World Cup, offering the best blend of youth, tactical flexibility, and tournament-winning pedigree. Norway (29.00) is our underdog selection after a perfect 8-0-0 qualifying campaign with Erling Haaland scoring 16 goals. England (6.50), France (8.50), and defending champions Argentina (9.00) round out the main contenders. The final takes place on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium.
World Cup 2026 Betting Odds: The Complete Picture
Spain leads the betting market at 5.00 odds following their Euro 2024 triumph and dominant qualifying campaign. These odds have shifted dramatically since the December 2025 draw, revealing where the smart money is going.
Before placing any wagers, it’s worth understanding how bookmakers set odds and implied probability—this helps you identify when the market may be undervaluing a team.
Tournament Winner Odds (Top Favourites)
| Team | Odds | Implied Probability | Movement Since Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 5.00 | ~20% | ⬆️ Shortened from 11.00 |
| 🏴 England | 6.50 | ~15% | ⬆️ Shortened from 7.00 |
| 🇫🇷 France | 8.50 | ~12% | ⬇️ Lengthened (tough group) |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 9.00 | ~11% | ➡️ Unchanged |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 9.00 | ~11% | ➡️ Unchanged |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 11.00 | ~9% | ⬆️ Shortened from 15.00 |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 13.00 | ~8% | ➡️ Unchanged |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 21.00 | ~5% | ➡️ Stable |
Dark Horses & Underdog Odds
| Team | Odds | Why They’re Dangerous |
|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇴 Norway | 29.00 | Perfect 8-0-0 qualifying, Haaland scored 16 goals |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 31.00 | Must qualify via playoffs first |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 41.00 | Favourable draw, experienced squad |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 51.00 | Strong form, Luis Díaz firing |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 51.00 | Host nation, favourable group draw |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | 81.00 | 2022 semi-finalists, same core squad |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 101.00 | Beat Spain & Germany in 2022 |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 251.00 | Host nation, Davies & David in prime |
The Favourites: Breaking Down the Contenders
Only a handful of teams have a realistic shot at winning this tournament. Here’s our analysis of the top contenders, based on form, squad depth, and mathematical prediction models.
🇪🇸 Spain (5.00) – The Team to Beat
There’s a reason Spain’s odds have shortened from 11.00 to 5.00 since Euro 2024. This team is different.
Luis de la Fuente has assembled something special: a squad that blends the technical brilliance of Spain’s golden era with the fearless energy of youth. At the heart of it all? Lamine Yamal, who at just 18 years old, has already won a European Championship and back-to-back Kopa Trophies.
When asked on CBS Sports’ 60 Minutes whether Spain would win the World Cup, Yamal didn’t hesitate: “Yes.”
- Best midfield in football: Rodri, Pedri, Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz
- Yamal and Nico Williams terrorising defenders on the wings
- Unbeaten in qualifying (16 of 18 points, +19 goal difference)
- Young squad (average age 26) with no fear
- Euro 2024 champions with momentum
- Flopped at the last three World Cups (no quarter-final since 2010)
- Weight of expectation as tournament favourites
🏴 England (6.50) – The Nearly Men
Thomas Tuchel was hired to do one thing: end 60 years of hurt. The German tactician, who won the Champions League with Chelsea, has already made his mark—England became the first European nation ever to win all their qualifiers without conceding a single goal.
The talent is undeniable. Harry Kane continues to break records, Jude Bellingham is evolving into a generational player, and Cole Palmer has emerged as a wildcard who can decide matches in an instant.
- Deepest squad in the tournament
- Tuchel’s tactical flexibility and knockout experience
- Perfect qualifying campaign (8-0-0, zero goals conceded)
- Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Palmer, Foden—pick your match-winner
- History of losing in big moments (Euro 2020, Euro 2024, 2018 WC)
- Pressure of 60 years without a major trophy
🇫🇷 France (8.50) – The Tournament Machines
France have reached the final in two of the last three World Cups, winning in 2018 and losing on penalties to Argentina in 2022. They know how to win knockout football.
Kylian Mbappé enters the tournament just five goals behind Miroslav Klose’s all-time World Cup scoring record. Behind him, Ousmane Dembélé (the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner) and a conveyor belt of attacking talent mean France will never lack for goals.
- Three straight World Cup finals is possible—only Brazil (1994-2002) and West Germany (1982-1990) have done it
- Mbappé at his peak (27 years old)
- Incredible squad depth for a gruelling 48-team format
- Deschamps’ final tournament—motivation is sky-high
- Drew the toughest group (France, Senegal, Norway, playoff winner)
- Bracket becomes a nightmare if they don’t win Group I
🇦🇷 Argentina (9.00) – Defending Champions
Can Argentina become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to defend the World Cup? The core of the 2022 champions remains intact, and Lionel Scaloni has built a squad that knows how to win when it matters.
The elephant in the room? Lionel Messi turns 39 during the tournament. He hasn’t fully committed to playing, saying he’ll only participate if he feels he can “contribute and be important.”
- Tournament DNA—Copa America 2021, World Cup 2022, Copa America 2024
- Familiar faces: Martínez, De Paul, Álvarez, Mac Allister
- Playing in Messi’s adopted home country (USA)
- Scaloni’s tactical nous in big games
- Can they win without Messi at his best?
- Ángel Di María has retired internationally
- Supporting cast needs to step up
The Underdogs: Who Can Shock the World?
Every World Cup produces a story. Morocco’s 2022 semi-final run. Croatia’s 2018 charge to the final. South Korea and Turkey’s 2002 fairy tales. The 48-team format opens the door for more upsets than ever—making these value betting opportunities worth serious consideration.
🇳🇴 Norway (29.00) – Our Dark Horse Pick
We’re going to say it plainly: Norway is the most exciting underdog story heading into this World Cup.
In an interview with Time Magazine last summer, Erling Haaland gave Norway a “0.5 percent chance” of winning the World Cup. Then his team went out and produced a qualifying campaign for the ages.
The 4-1 demolition of Italy at San Siro wasn’t just a result—it was a statement. Norway has the best striker in world football, an Arsenal captain pulling the strings in midfield, and a generation of players (Nusa, Bobb, Sørloth, Strand Larsen) who believe they can beat anyone.
Haaland is a tournament-defining force. Martin Ødegaard had 7 assists in qualifying (most in Europe). No pressure of past failures—first World Cup since 1998. They’re 12-1-1 in their last 14 competitive matches.
The path: They’ll likely finish second in Group I behind France, setting up a potential Round of 16 clash with Ecuador or Ivory Coast—both winnable. After that? England or Brazil in the quarters. It’s a tough road, but this team has shown they can compete with anyone.
🇲🇦 Morocco (81.00) – Unfinished Business
Morocco’s 2022 run wasn’t a fluke. They beat Spain, Portugal, and Belgium en route to becoming the first African semi-finalists in World Cup history. The same core remains: Achraf Hakimi, Sofyan Amrabat, and the defensive discipline that frustrated Europe’s elite.
Coach Walid Regragui has built a team that believes. They won all 8 qualifying matches and enter as heavy favourites at AFCON. The only question: can they do it again when opponents know exactly what’s coming?
🇯🇵 Japan (101.00) – Giant Killers
Japan beat both Spain AND Germany in the 2022 group stage. That wasn’t an accident. Under their disciplined tactical system, Japan press relentlessly, defend as a unit, and strike with clinical precision on the counter.
With Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), and Wataru Endō (Liverpool) leading the charge, Japan has more European experience than ever. They’re in a tricky Group E with the Netherlands, but don’t be surprised if they top it.
🇺🇸 USA (51.00) – Home Soil Heroes?
The USMNT got the draw they needed. Group D features Paraguay, Australia, and a European playoff winner—comfortably the easiest group for any Pot 1 team. With Mauricio Pochettino on the sideline and Christian Pulisic as captain, the Americans have a genuine shot at a quarter-final run.
But here’s the thing: the USA has never advanced past the quarter-finals, and the pressure of hosting could be crushing. They’re BetMGM’s largest liability—meaning the public is betting on them heavily. History suggests that rarely ends well.
Our Prediction: Who Will Win World Cup 2026?
After analysing the odds, form, and tournament dynamics, here’s where we stand. For more detailed match-by-match analysis throughout the tournament, check our daily best bets.
🏆 Our Pick to Win: Spain
This isn’t a safe pick—it’s a conviction pick.
Spain have everything: the best midfield in football, the most exciting young players, a coach who knows how to win tournaments, and the tactical flexibility to adapt to any opponent. They dominated Euro 2024, steamrolled through qualifying, and carry zero baggage from recent World Cup failures because this is an entirely new generation.
Lamine Yamal is the kind of player who defines tournaments. He’s fearless, impossibly skilled, and already accustomed to performing on the biggest stage. Surrounded by Pedri, Nico Williams, and a defence that has quietly become one of Europe’s best, Spain have the depth to survive 8 games in a gruelling expanded format.
The path is favourable too. Win Group H, and Spain likely avoid Argentina until the final. By then, they’ll have built momentum, confidence, and that intangible tournament belief that separates champions from contenders.
Spain beat Argentina in the final to claim their second World Cup title.
🎯 Our Underdog Pick: Norway
At 29.00 odds, Norway offers incredible value. This isn’t a team hoping to survive the group stage—this is a team that believes they can win it all.
Haaland is the most devastating striker on the planet. Ødegaard is one of the best playmakers in the Premier League. And the supporting cast—Sørloth, Nusa, Bobb, Strand Larsen—gives them attacking options that can overwhelm anyone on their day.
Yes, France is in their group. Yes, the knockout bracket is tough. But Norway just beat Italy 4-1 at the San Siro. They’ve gone 12-1-1 in competitive matches. And they have absolutely nothing to lose.
A quarter-final run feels realistic. A semi-final? Absolutely possible. And if Haaland catches fire? The scenes in Oslo would be legendary.
Understanding expected value in betting helps explain why backing Norway at these odds makes mathematical sense—even if they don’t win, the potential return justifies the risk.
Key Storylines to Watch
Messi vs. Ronaldo: One Last Dance?
If both win their groups, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could meet in the quarter-finals—their first-ever competitive meeting. It would be the biggest football match of the decade, two legends in their final World Cup, everything on the line.
The Mbappé vs. Haaland Showdown
Group I gives us France vs. Norway, meaning Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland will share a pitch at the World Cup. These two will dominate football for the next decade. Their first World Cup battle? Must-watch television.
England’s 60-Year Wait
Can Thomas Tuchel do what no England manager has done since Alf Ramsey in 1966? The talent is there. The draw is manageable. The question is whether England can finally handle the pressure when it matters most.
Host Nation Magic
The USA, Mexico, and Canada all have home-field advantage in a tournament that spans 16 venues across three countries. Mexico opens at the Azteca. Canada could face Italy in Toronto. And the USA plays all group games on home soil. Will one of them make a deep run?
World Cup 2026 Winner Odds: Summary Table
| Tier | Team | Odds | Our Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourites | 🇪🇸 Spain | 5.00 | 🏆 OUR PICK TO WIN |
| 🏴 England | 6.50 | Best squad depth, can’t ignore them | |
| 🇫🇷 France | 8.50 | Tournament pedigree, Mbappé at peak | |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 9.00 | Ancelotti factor, but inconsistent form | |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 9.00 | Defending champs, Messi’s final dance | |
| Contenders | 🇵🇹 Portugal | 11.00 | Ronaldo’s last WC, deep squad |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 13.00 | Talented but inconsistent | |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 21.00 | Dark horse with value | |
| Dark Horses | 🇳🇴 Norway | 29.00 | 🎯 OUR UNDERDOG PICK |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 41.00 | Favourable draw, experienced core | |
| 🇨🇴 Colombia | 51.00 | Strong form, Luis Díaz carrying them | |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 51.00 | Host nation, easy group | |
| Longshots | 🇲🇦 Morocco | 81.00 | 2022 magic could repeat |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 101.00 | Giant killers, disciplined system | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 251.00 | Host nation wildcard |
Where to Bet on World Cup 2026
Looking to place your World Cup wagers? We recommend sticking with UK-licensed betting sites that offer competitive odds on outright winner markets. For the best welcome offers currently available, check our promotions page.
Gambling involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose. If you’re concerned about your gambling habits, visit BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133. 18+ only.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 World Cup is shaping up to be the most open tournament in years. The expanded 48-team format creates chaos, the three-country hosting spreads the travel burden, and the sheer depth of talent across multiple continents means upsets are inevitable.
But when the dust settles, we believe Spain will be holding the trophy. They have the perfect blend of youth and experience, the tactical flexibility to adapt, and a group of players who already know how to win on the biggest stage.
And if you’re looking for value? Put a little something on Norway. At 29.00, you’re getting a team with the best striker in the world, a perfect qualifying record, and absolutely nothing to fear.
For the complete breakdown of World Cup 2026 dates, teams, and venues, check our comprehensive guide. And don’t forget to join our free Telegram channel for daily tips throughout the tournament.
Football’s greatest show kicks off June 11, 2026. See you there.